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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes
will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds.

...Texas...
The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but
higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part
of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential
beco*es apparent. 

A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is
forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A
trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across
parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich
low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across
parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into
the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial
moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely beco*e established
somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of
the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the
front. 

Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could
support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day
storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of
central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the
front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late
afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward
away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level
flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while
deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection.
Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg
(greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector
during the afternoon and early evening. 

A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and
near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and
evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat
for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the
evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold
front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat
could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and
isolated hail/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 11/07/2024