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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central
Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night
across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a
tornado or two are all possible.

...Parts of west and central TX...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward
across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night
into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially
cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is
expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface
trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream
westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with
increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow
cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the
end of the period. 

Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective
warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development
also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm
coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase
later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet
nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the
region.  

Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support
the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters,
especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau
regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will
acco*pany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the
nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly
rich low-level moisture will support some potential for
surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably
veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two.  

...Lower FL Keys...
Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for
more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of
Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of
the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as
Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado
threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the
magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 11/06/2024