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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modest severe potential remains apparent during parts of the
extended period.

A mid/upper low over the central High Plains at 12Z Saturday should
pivot northeastward towards the Upper Midwest as it beco*es an open
wave. A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies should overlap with
the northwestern periphery of a modified low-level moisture plume
emanating north from the western Gulf. This plume is expected to be
narrower to the north-northwest of the Ark-La-Tex. co*bined with 
probable ongoing convection in the warm conveyor ahead of the weak
surface front, the overall severe threat on D4 should be
confined/low-end. 

While outlier guidance indicates the possibility of TC Rafael
approaching the coastal LA vicinity this weekend, ensemble trends
and latest NHC forecast suggest it will probably remain over the
western Gulf.

Guidance consensus still indicates an amplified upper trough should
progress into the West early next week, with this feature reaching
the central states mid-week. This may eventually overlap a
broadening warm/moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf
across the south-central states. But poor run-to-run continuity and
large ensemble spread persist with the evolution of this trough.