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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday
afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas.

...TX...
A mid- to upper-level low will meander slowly east across the Desert
Southwest during the period.  In between a surface high centered
over the central High Plains and TC Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico,
easterly low-level flow in the western Gulf Basin and TX will favor
a gradual westward push of modified moisture return into
west-central TX.  A surface trough will likely serve as the western
delimiter of moisture/instability.  Models indicate at least weak to
moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon in the Concho
Valley.  Shear profiles will support storm organization, including
the possibility for supercells.  Have made a small westward
adjustment to low-severe probabilities over west-central TX based on
the latest model guidance.  Large hail appears to be the primary
threat, although a confined zone may exhibit a short-duration threat
for a tornado.  A hail/wind risk could linger well into the evening
and perhaps early overnight depending on storm-scale details
unknown/not resolvable at this time.

..Smith.. 11/05/2024