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Mesoscale Discussion 2213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Areas affected...much of Louisiana and into southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051606Z - 051700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Occasionally rotating storms are expected over the next
few hours across parts of Louisiana and adjacent southwestern
Mississippi, ahead of the advancing cold front.  Current indications
are that WW issuance will remain unnecessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest observational data shows a cold front advancing
across western Louisiana and far southeastern Texas at this time,
with a band of generally weak convection along and behind the
boundary.  Meanwhile, with a very moist warm-sector boundary layer
contributing to 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based
objective analysis, widely scattered pre-frontal storms have
evolved, with a couple of the longer-lived updrafts exhibiting
low-level rotation.

Thus far, intensity of the updrafts and strength of rotation has
remained somewhat limited generally -- suggesting only weak/brief
tornado potential; a recent tornado has been reported but with a
storm that is exhibiting only limited low-level rotation suggestive
of limited tornado intensity.  Given observed winds veering
gradually with height but only moderate in magnitude, the
current/limited degree of updraft rotation should be maintained. 
With that said, we will continue to monitor convective evolution
over the next couple of hours, as an increase in coverage of the
stronger updrafts could require closer examination of potential for
WW issuance.

..Goss/Hart.. 11/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29829370 31299302 32729238 32969185 31619093 30109069
            29189116 29829370