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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday
afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas.

...TX...
Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across
much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM.
A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support
ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted
trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in
the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS
and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the
potential severe-storm corridor. 

Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the
cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail
should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear.
Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of
central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a
confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting
Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively
nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted.

...Central/eastern Gulf Coast...
Per the latest NHC forecast and probable co*pact nature of strong
low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat
appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large
spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the
eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a
tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024