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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with damaging winds will
be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic westward into the
lower Ohio Valley, and in parts of the mid Missouri Valley. A few
storms with hail and strong winds will also be possible in parts of
the central Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southern Appalachians/Lower Ohio Valley...
At the surface, a warm front will move northward today across the
mid Mississippi Valley, southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints mostly in the upper
60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization
across parts moist airmass to the south of the front. It appears
that the axis of greatest instability will from southeast Missouri
into western Kentucky, where RAP and NAM forecast soundings increase
MLCAPE into the 3000 to 3500 J/kg by afternoon. The moderate
instability co*bined with steep low-level lapse rates should be
enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. However, 0-6 km shear is
only forecast to be in the 20 to 25 knot range across the lower Ohio
Valley, which should limit storm organization.

Further to the east, the potential for strong thunderstorms will be
dependent upon destabilization. Morning convection in some areas
across the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic will likely limit
the severe potential. In spite of this, areas where the airmass
remains undisturbed during the morning, could heat up enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat by afternoon.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward into
the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute
to some pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings along the instability axis by 21Z suggest MLCAPE
will reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from parts of northeast
Colorado northeastward into Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota and
far southwest Minnesota. Thunderstorms that develop along and ahead
of the front will move east-southeastward into the stronger
instability. In spite of warm air aloft, 0-6 km shear along the
instability axis is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This
could be enough for a hail threat associated with rotating cells
that develop during the late afternoon. A few strong wind gusts may
also occur.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/26/2022