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Topic: SPC Nov 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 10 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Nov 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Nov 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large
hail, and wind damage, are likely today from the Southern Plains
north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A
few of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley...

Strong upper trough is currently located over the Four Corners
region. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern
Rockies by the start of the day1 period, then shift into the
southern High Plains by 18z as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern Mexico/west TX into western OK. During the overnight
hours, the mid-level speed max should increase in excess of 100kt as
it moves into northwest MO. Latest model guidance suggests a surface
low will develop over northwest TX by daybreak, then track into
central OK by 18z, ultimately lifting into southern IA late, in
concert with the 500mb speed max.

Early this morning, leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to
be spreading across eastern NM into the TX High Plains.
Boundary-layer moisture is surging northwest into this region as LLJ
strengthens in response to the approaching trough. Deeper convective
updrafts are now developing south-east of LBB, and this activity is
expected to increase in areal coverage/intensity, leading into the
start of the day1 period. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous
thunderstorms will be ongoing at sunrise ahead of the mid-level
speed max within a focused zone of low-level convergence. Upper 60s
surface dew points should advance into southern OK ahead of the
surface low and forecast soundings exhibit negligible inhibition
with substantial MLCAPE (>2000 J/kg) shortly after sunrise.
Additionally, 0-3 SRH should be quite strong (400 m2/s2) as
low-level warm advection will remain strong across the southern High
Plains due to a 50+kt LLJ. While numerous updrafts are likely early,
supercells are expected. Have increased severe probabilities across
this portion of the southern Plains to reflect the uncapped,
strongly sheared/buoyant profiles at the start of the period.
Tornadoes are possible with this activity, along with hail/wind.

Strong, dynamic system will eject across the central/southern Plains
and this will encourage a notable surface front/dry line into the
I-35 corridor by 20z, extending into north-central TX. Weak
inhibition should lead to at least scattered strong/severe
thunderstorms developing south along the front/dry line across TX,
while more concentrated thunderstorms will spread across OK toward
the Ozarks, due to focused low-level warm advection. Environmental
parameters strongly favor supercells, though a considerable amount
of convection may result in co*plex storm modes from OK into
MO/northwest AR. Tornadoes can be expected with this activity, some
possibly strong, along with some hail/wind threat.

Strong-severe convection will spread across central MO ahead of the
short wave late in the period where less unstable air mass will
begin to impede updraft strength. It's not entirely clear how far
organized severe will extend downstream, but weak buoyancy over the
mid MS Valley suggests this will be across northeast MO.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/04/2024


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Source: SPC Nov 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html)