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Mesoscale Discussion 2197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

Valid 040046Z - 040245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may
persist through the evening, extending into far western Arkansas.
Another watch will likely be needed prior to watch 702 expiration.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms currently stretches from
just south of the Tulsa area southwestward toward Durant OK, with
significant lightning activity and cooling storm tops.  Surface
analysis shows that the boundary has not moved much, however,
stronger elevated instability and moisture exists just above the
cooler surface layer. GPS PWAT values are near 1.80" at Ft. Smith
AR, and the 00Z sounding from SHV measured over 2.00".  

Given persistent southwest flow just off the surface, with around 40
kt at 850 mb, additional destabilization is possible ahead of the
ongoing line of storms, and around the west side of the AR
precipitation shield. 

Thus, theses storms may remain rather robust for several more hours,
aided by substantial moisture flux and deep-layer shear. Even with
somewhat cooler/skin layer temperatures, a few damaging gusts may
occur. Tornadoes appear most likely as the main boundary gradually
mixes north, and where it intersects the line of storms.

..Jewell.. 11/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33849634 34559603 35109573 35619580 35969516 35989460
            35589403 34939379 34049407 33769470 33759606 33849634