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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms remain possible
tonight over parts of the southern Plains.  Tornadoes, damaging
winds and large hail are expected.

...01z Update...

Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing east across the Four
Corners region early this evening. 90+kt 500mb speed max will rotate
into the base of this feature over northern Mexico late tonight and
into far West TX by sunrise. In response, LLJ is forecast to
increase markedly across the southern High Plains later this
evening, with the nose of the LLJ expected to focus into western OK
by the end of the period. 20-30kt southerly 1km winds are currently
noted at SJT/MAF/DYX, and higher PWs will begin to surge north over
the next few hours into the TX South Plains. Scattered convection
continues to trail southwest across the Big Country, but this
activity is not currently strongly forced. However, low-level
convergence should increase across northwest TX as the LLJ
increases, and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely
develop late this evening into the early-morning hours as far
northwest as the eastern portions of LBB CWA. Forecast soundings
exhibit very steep 2-6km lapse rates, which contribute to MUCAPE
approaching 3000 J/kg within an environment that will beco*e
increasingly sheared. Long hodographs appear favorable for very
large hail with this activity. Additionally, as upper 60s surface
dew points advance into southwest OK, surface-based parcels beco*e
uninhibited and substantial SBCAPE will once again develop. In
addition to large hail, threat of tornadoes may increase very late
in the period as boundary layer recovers across this portion of the
Plains.

Otherwise, a larger co*plex of storms, that currently extends from
the Red River into eastern OK, will gradually advance east this
evening. Scattered supercells are embedded within this corridor,
especially along the leading edge. Wind fields continue to support
long-lived updrafts and all hazards remain possible, especially
wind/tornadoes. The primary risk for large hail will acco*pany the
late-night supercells ahead of the mid-level speed max.

..Darrow.. 11/04/2024