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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds throughout
the period. The most likely areas affected include parts of Oklahoma
into north and west-central Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds,
and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A large/full-latitude upper trough will progress slowly east across
the Rockies today, with strengthening south/southwest winds aloft
spreading east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley into
Monday morning. Winds aloft and therefore deep-layer shear will
generally increase throughout the period as an upper high remains
over the Southeast. Various embedded waves associated with ongoing
storms will likely exist from northern TX across OK and toward the
mid MO Valley, while the primary speed max rounds the base of the
trough late, moving across northern Mexico and into southwest TX.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High
Plains, with a broad fetch of south to southeast winds across the
Plains. This, along with 850 mb speeds of 40-50 kt, will maintain a
moist air mass across the southern Plains, contributing to bouts of
storms, some severe, primarily from northwest TX across OK.

...From northern TX into KS...
Numerous storms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z this morning, from
northern TX into eastern OK. Some of this activity could produce
locally strong gusts, perhaps into western AR by midday. 

Behind this activity, an outflow boundary will likely be draped
along the Red River vicinity, while a dryline forms over
west-central TX. Southerly winds will bring mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints into OK, as low-level lapse rates steepen west of the
dryline. Increasing instability with little CIN will lead to renewed
development along the dryline possibly by late morning, and,
along/north of the aforementioned outflow boundary. A few supercells
appear likely across this regime, primarily from northwest TX into
central OK. The exact position of the outflow boundaries is
uncertain, but a favorable corridor for a couple tornadoes may
develop near northern portions of the dryline and near the
retreating boundary during the afternoon. Effective SRH will be on
the order of 200 to 300 m2/s2, with elongating hodographs as the
upper trough continues east. Multiple bouts of thunderstorms and
associated new/stabilizing outflows decrease predictability for a
categorical upgrade at this time.

Farther north into western KS, cool air aloft and dewpoints into the
mid and upper 50s F may lead to isolated storms capable of hail, as
instability beco*es sufficient along with around 60 kt deep-layer
shear. The cap is forecast to mix out west of the dryline and near
the surface low during the late afternoon, and, a cold front will
push south across NE and into western KS during the evening, further
enhancing lift.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/03/2024