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Topic: SPC Nov 2, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (Read 10 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Nov 2, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Nov 2, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[html]SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
     
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday
night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and
damaging winds should be the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
The large upper trough in the Southwest will continue its eastward
progression into the southern Plains. With time, the trough will
lift northeast and lose amplitude. A strong mid-level jet will eject
into the southern Plains and mid-Missouri Valley during the late
morning and afternoon. A surface low initially in western Oklahoma
will begin to accelerate northeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest
by Tuesday Morning. The focus for severe storms will along the
dryline in Oklahoma/Texas, which will eventually be overtaken by a
cold front, and the cold front extending from Kansas into the
Midwest.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
The current expectation is for strongly forced line of convection to
be ongoing in western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Additional
convection is also possible farther east into parts of the Ozarks
within a broad area of warm advection. How the western convection
evolves with time will be modulated by the eastern precipitation and
eventual degree of surface-based destabilization. Surface heating
will be key as mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor. Even
without significant surface heating, a very moist airmass should
support the continuation of the convective line into central/eastern
Oklahoma. Guidance is consistent in showing a linear mode and shear
vectors largely parallel to the boundary support this outco*e. Very
strong low-level and deep-layer shear will promote a risk for severe
winds and QLCS tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur,
portions of eastern Oklahoma appear to be favorably positioned for a
greater severe threat given the potential co*bination of
destabilization and large-scale ascent. Portions of East Texas
should observe greater surface heating. Deep-layer shear will be
weaker, however. Severe wind gusts and line-embedded circulations
will also be possible in these areas.

...Ozarks...
Initial morning convection could pose a marginal severe threat.
Weaker forcing and limited buoyancy should keep any threat isolated.
The greater threat for severe weather will co*e with the  line of
convection along the cold front moving in from the west during the
evening into parts of the overnight. Buoyancy will still be limited
and decrease with eastward extent, but strong low-level and
deep-layer wind fields will continue to support some risk for
damaging winds and perhaps QLCS tornadoes.

..Wendt.. 11/02/2024


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Source: SPC Nov 2, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html)