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Mesoscale Discussion 2182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of west Texas into extreme southeastern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021824Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the
afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. A WW issuance may be
needed in the next couple of hours pending robust storm
intensification.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually deepening across the Permian
Basin amid a destabilizing boundary layer, with NLDN data depicting
lightning already occurring with the deeper updrafts. 17Z
mesoanalysis shows some remaining MLCINH in place. However, surface
temperatures are approaching 80 F in spots, amid 60 F dewpoints,
yielding 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical wind profiles gradually veer
from southeasterly at the surface, to southwesterly at 500 mb, with
considerable strengthening with height noted in forecast soundings.
Hodographs are relatively straight and elongated in the near-term,
supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. However, strengthening
low-level flow later this afternoon and evening will contribute to
50+ kts of effective bulk shear and larger, curved low-level
hodographs. 

As such, multicells and transient supercells should develop over the
next couple of hours, though more sustained supercells may
materialize by mid to late afternoon. The more intense, long-lived
storms may produce severe gusts and large hail (with some stones
potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Low-level shear may
also beco*e strong enough to support the risk for a couple of
tornadoes later this afternoon into early evening, when hodographs
enlarge.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 11/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31730415 32240395 32500357 32640296 32770210 32900140
            32810099 32150078 31550141 31290224 31240294 31240347
            31280390 31730415