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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and
tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the western CONUS will beco*e highly amplified,
with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four
Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains,
with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High
Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air
mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread
rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into
KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry
conditions over the eastern CONUS. 

...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK...
Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast
NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of
moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place
with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft.
Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may
limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at
least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface
air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK.

The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that
will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating co*ing
out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate
outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest
OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a
couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger
heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more
information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may
occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the
co*posite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the
evening and overnight.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024