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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are
expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on
Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of
the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on
Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain
West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in
place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest
instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west
Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this
area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with
a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by
00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot
range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern
High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are
forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This
should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and
severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat
could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms
developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of
storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these
clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central
Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should
beco*e more isolated.

Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western
Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase
Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear,
evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for
hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end
of the period.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2024