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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and marginally
severe wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern
High Plains Friday evening into the overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Pacific
Coastal states on Friday, as flow remains southwesterly at
mid-levels across much of the western and central U.S. Moisture
advection will take place across the southern Plains on Friday, with
surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F over much of Texas. By
late Friday afternoon, a pocket of moderate instability is expected
over parts of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop during the early evening near
this pocket of instability. As moisture and low-level flow gradually
increase across the southern Plains from the evening into the
overnight, convective coverage is expected to expand north and
northeastward across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas.

A consensus of model forecasts suggests that MLCAPE will peak around
1500 J/kg in parts of west Texas Friday evening. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. The moderate deep-layer
shear, co*bined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should
support the development of a severe threat.  Most of the cells are
expected to remain multicellular. However, areas where the
environment is locally more favored could support supercells with
isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts. The late initiation
and lack of large-scale ascent is expected to be a limiting factor,
and should keep any severe threat marginal.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2024