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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be
possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into
northeast Texas.

...Synopsis...
A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great
Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a
shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which
will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a
lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during
the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning.

At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower
MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into
central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop
across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in
low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be
most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints
perhaps as far north as the OH River.

...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX...
Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from
southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold
front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is
expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from
southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley,
with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear
and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind
gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger
instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will
be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with
weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally
severe gusts are expected in any one area.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024