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Mesoscale Discussion 2170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...north-central and northeast OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...696...

Valid 310029Z - 310130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694, 696 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind and isolated hail threats should persist for
the next several hours. The tornado threat may increase during the
next few hours, ahead of the more intense linear segment over
north-central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...IR cloud tops and MRMS MESH signatures suggest the
deepest core of the evening was centered on Logan/Noble counties
border area within the extensive linear band. Surface dew points
ahead of this part of the band are in the mid 60s (64-65 F), with
this air mass well sampled by the 00Z OUN sounding. Despite weak
700-500 mb lapse rates around 6 C/km, MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg exists
with a moderately enlarged, sickle-shaped hodograph. The low-level
jet in the Twin Lakes VWP has increased during the past hour. It is
plausible that a sustained swath of severe wind damage, along with
low-level mesocyclones capable of a couple tornadoes may evolve from
this portion of the line. This may eventually impact parts of the
greater Tulsa metro area by late evening.

..Grams/Hart.. 10/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36389705 36619671 36689657 36749615 36669590 36509558
            36319545 35989568 35769618 35719666 35809711 36089744
            36389705