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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

Upper-level flow will beco*e quasi-zonal by the end of this week.
During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to
dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly
progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level
ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At
the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late
this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern
beco*es less predictable, though model consensus suggests another
trough will move into the West by the middle of next week.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast...
The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will
not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead
to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure
gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day
and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds
aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends
in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry.

...Southern California...
Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong
upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This
trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall
less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will
increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include
some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be
monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive
fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these
latest model trends.

..Wendt.. 10/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...