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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail,
numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today
into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern
Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and
vicinity.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and
Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today.
A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a
cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A
dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across
western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling.
Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the
southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and
dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this
morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding
the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central
Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of
the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose
some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening
mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
There is also some chance it eventually beco*es surface based later
this afternoon across northeast KS.

Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm
sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally
stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current
expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by
20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in
close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection.
Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie
this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer
shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated
threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may
occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained
supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability
with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear.

With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater
threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This
severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line
spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually beco*ing more
isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley.
The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and
evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH
strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained
supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains
somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat
for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable
low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies
within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and
observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded
westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the
expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been
expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to
numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening.

Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later
across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells
may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the
initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with
southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can
develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a
couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually
occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes
will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat
increases as the convective mode beco*es more linear.

...Southeast Texas...
There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating
thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a
very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as
low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate
degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength
winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity
for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating
characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to
remain limited.

..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024