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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday
morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional
threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if
thunderstorms can form before the end of the period.

...20z Update...
Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances
across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite.
Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

...Southern/Central Plains...
A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress
slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the
period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse
rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong
mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest
into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight.
Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern
Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central
High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop
generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper
Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly
low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture
return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a
developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the
cold front.

Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast
over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the
potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight
appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But,
non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some
convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the
cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the
forecast co*bination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear
would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps
strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK
into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front.
Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential
will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z).