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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for
critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas
Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble
guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these
conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall
duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region
(and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine
fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but
confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium.
Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion
for more details.

..Wendt.. 10/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains
Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A
lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving
northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy
conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather
conditions are possible.

...Southern Plains...
Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the
southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a
lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH
values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are
possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical
conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle,
but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus,
critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model
consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph.

...Midwest and Great Lakes...
A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally
elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the  Midwest and
Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible
ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the
deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not
overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH
values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger
given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...