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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into
California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over
the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to
close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern
will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over
the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F
across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model
forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each
afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining
around 30 knots. This, co*bined with a lack of large-scale ascent,
is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region.
Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats.

The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards
southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level
jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and
moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an
isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon
and evening.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across
the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass.
Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central
and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will
be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any
severe potential relatively isolated.