Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gust potential continues
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England through
early evening.

...Discussion...
Convection continues to evolve largely as expected across the
eastern U.S., and so no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to
be necessary at this time.

Meanwhile, MRGL risks across portions of western South Dakota, and
over the northern Missouri vicinity, also appear reasonable and thus
no adjustments are required.

..Goss.. 07/25/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/

...New England/Mid-Atlantic States...
The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough
and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds
noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the
Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along
and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal
trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist
particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New
England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary
layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England
late this morning and midday.

Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest
destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95
general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where
MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New
England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West
Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless
support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally
damaging wind gusts will be the most co*mon severe risk (almost
exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly
across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level
shear/SRH will be stronger.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
A few strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur this afternoon
within a moist/unstable environment near the front across southern
Missouri, but will not adjust/reintroduce severe probabilities at
this time given lingering forecast uncertainties and relatively
low/isolated perceived severe potential overall. 

A somewhat higher probability/coverage of storms is expected tonight
and farther north from northeast Kansas across northern Missouri
into western/south-central Illinois. This will be as a southwesterly
low-level jet intensifies and warm advection/isentropic ascent
increases coincident with the elevated frontal surface. A few
organized and potentially severe storms may occur, particularly
early in the convective cycle before a more front-parallel linear
configuration evolves. That said, potential upscale growth into an
MCS could eventually occur.

...Central/northern High Plains...
A conditional and/or fairly localized severe potential (hail/wind)
is evident in this region this afternoon into this evening, with a
deeply mixed diurnal boundary layer, steep low/middle-level lapse
rates, and pockets of favorable/residual moisture all expected to
support a plume of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from parts of western South
Dakota into western Nebraska. Have introduced low severe
probabilities for parts of this region where a few severe storms
appear a bit more probable. Any convection that does develop will be
in an environment of modest-magnitude but strongly veering low-level
winds with height, leading to long hodographs and around 40-50 kt
effective-shear magnitudes.