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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS TO KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER AREA REMOVAL IN THE NORTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may begin late in the period from the Upper
Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. 
Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level
1/MRGL risk for Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified flow field aloft will reside across the U.S.
Tuesday, as a deep trough slowly crosses the Intermountain West
through the period.  By Wednesday morning, the trough should extend
from the northern High Plains to the Four Corners area.  Meanwhile,
ridging will amplify in the eastern U.S., in response to the advance
of the western trough.

At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Four Corners
states through the first half of the period, ahead of the
progressing upper system.  A frontal wave should evolve over the
central High Plains, and is expected to then shift
north-northeastward across Nebraska, reaching the southern Minnesota
vicinity by 12Z Tuesday morning.  This will allow continued eastward
advance of the trailing front, which should extend from the Mid
Missouri Valley (western Iowa) vicinity south-southwestward to
southern New Mexico/far West Texas by the end of the period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward to the northwestern
Oklahoma vicinity...
Ahead of the sharpening cold front beco*ing established across the
Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, a warm/modestly moist pre-frontal
boundary layer is expected to evolve, beneath a fairly pronounced
warm/capping layer aloft.  Much of the large-scale ascent associated
with the advancing upper system should remain to the cool side of
the front, and thus expect the capping layer to be very slow to
weaken/erode.  

Low-level warm advection ahead of the track of the surface low may
support some primarily elevated convective development overnight,
where modest elevated CAPE may be sufficient to permit a few
stronger updrafts.  Limited potential for hail nearing severe levels
could acco*pany one or two of the strongest storms.  A strong gust
cannot be ruled out, should a less-elevated storm nearer the surface
boundary evolve.

Farther southwestward into the Plains, any potential storm
development should be limited to the last 3 or 4 hours of the
period, at the earliest -- due to the persistent capping.  With that
said, given gradually steepening lapse rates/increasing CAPE, and
the presence of strong southwesterly flow aloft atop the frontal
zone, low/conditional risk for a couple of storms capable of
producing marginal hail/wind cannot be ruled out.  A such, will 
retain an elongated Level 1/MRGL risk area across central portions
of the country to reflect these potential convective scenarios that
may evolve prior to the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/28/2024