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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing severe
wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop Wednesday from
the southern Plains north-northeastward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving out of the interior West is forecast to eject
northeastward across the central U.S. Wednesday, shunted from its
prior, more eastward trajectory by stout ridging over the eastern
CONUS.  At the surface, steady eastward advance of a cold front
across the central third of the country is expected.  By the end of
the period (early Thursday morning), the boundary should extend from
the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward across the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Ozarks region, to central Texas.

...Upper Midwest to Texas...
Thunderstorm development is expected to occur -- potentially early
in the period -- along the advancing cold front, as lapse rates
gradually steepen atop a sufficiently moist/gradually warming
boundary layer.  The more substantial destabilization is expected to
evolve from roughly Kansas southward, while the strongest/deepest
forcing for ascent should occur from roughly Kansas northward.  

As such, initial convective development is expected in the vicinity
of the Middle Missouri Valley during the morning, and spreading
northeastward into the progressively weaker-CAPE environment into
the upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes area. 
Despite the more limited CAPE, however, strong southwesterly flow
aloft -- increasing with height -- will result in shear supporting
at least isolated stronger/potentially severe storms.  Hail and
locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risks, spreading
eastward with time as the front advances.  Threat should gradually
diminish after dark, with the loss of heating/diminishing CAPE.

Farther south, convective initiation should occur later, given
weaker forcing for ascent, and residual capping.  Storms that do
initiate will occur in a thermodynamic and kinematic environment
favoring rotating updrafts, and thus expect potential for large hail
and locally damaging gusts with stronger storms.  A tornado or two
may also occur, though some upscale growth is expected to occur with
time, potentially limiting this risk.  While some severe potential
may continue into the overnight hours, weakening CAPE should
correspond to a gradual decrease in severe potential through 31/12Z.

..Goss.. 10/28/2024