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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

Downslope warming and favorable timing of the mid-level jet across
the central High Plains suggests Critical fire weather is probable
in portions of the region. Strong sustained winds (and higher gusts)
are still expected farther east. Uncertainty remains rather high in
terms of how low RH will fall with continued moisture return
northward. The Elevated area has been expanded east to account for
some of this uncertainty and the potential for areas along the
fringe of the moisture return to be drier than anticipated.

Elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern
Illinois. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over the region
by afternoon. Current observations and forecast trajectories support
this possibility. Fuels are quite dry and winds will be strong, but
uncertainty remains quite large due to cirrus potentially impacting
afternoon temperatures.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024/

...Synopsis...
As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow
aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub
1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty
downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of
western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather
conditions are possible.

...High Plains...
Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of
the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and
downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH
minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will
support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather
conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent
of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest
winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover
and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as
farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast
confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most
probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across
parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and
downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels.

Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of
central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as
southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets
of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally
elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the
exceptionally dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...