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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

High-level cloud cover is continuing to erode across the Texas
Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Based on these and other
observational trends, the Critical area has been adjusted to include
more of those areas. Questions still remain how low RH will fall in
central/eastern Oklahoma, but strong winds and very dry fuels will
promote large fire potential nonetheless.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the
western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over
eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well
above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with
abundant and near record dry fuels. The co*bination of abnormally
high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated
to critical fire-weather conditions.

...Southern and central Plains...
Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the
deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee
low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen
over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts
as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The
strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative
humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the
strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and
southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given
extremely dry fuels.

Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and
returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind
gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to
support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions
across the southern Plains.

...Southwest and Great Basin...
Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is
expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and
the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH
values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated
fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the
southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...