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Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251905Z - 252100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may increase in
coverage across southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska. A
couple of strong to severe storms appear possible given
environmental parameters, and may pose an isolated hail/wind risk.
This threat will remain limited enough to negate the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...A decaying MCV remains evident in regional reflectivity
and visible satellite imagery moving across northwest SD. Over the
past 1-2 hours, signs of destabilization have been evident with a
notable cumulus field developing across the region and several
convective towers deepening along weak surface confluence axes in
the vicinity of the MCV. A few attempts at convective initiation
have been noted, but these attempts have largely been short lived,
likely owing to the relatively weak forcing for ascent and some
lingering inhibition noted in forecast soundings and hinted at by
visible imagery as areas of more shallow/stunted cumulus.

Despite the recent struggles, temperatures continue to climb into
the mid/upper 70s with mesoanalysis estimates showing steady
destabilization with MLCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg.
Furthermore, southeasterly low-level winds ahead of the MCV
juxtaposed with 30-45 knot mid-level winds is supporting around
30-40 knots of effective bulk shear with somewhat elongated
hodographs. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment is supportive
of organized convection if a robust storm can beco*e established.
The expectation is that additional thunderstorms develop through the
afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV and/or along one of the
peripheral surface boundaries with a couple of more organized strong
to severe storms that may pose a hail/wind threat. Given the weak
forcing for ascent, this potential should remain limited enough to
preclude the need for a watch.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44240407 44640379 44850295 44910164 44780082 44560025
            43940001 43320013 42860046 42760122 42780211 43120339
            43590382 44240407