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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central
Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level
jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected along and ahead of the front during the
afternoon. Sufficient instability co*bined with strong low-level
flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be
favorable for severe storms across parts of the region.

The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north
Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri.
GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon
suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb
lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can
materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind
gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible
with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears
possible.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures
are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow
is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley
suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could
be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so,
instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main
limiting factor.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward
into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in
western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm
development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the
northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be
isolated.

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great
Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface
temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability
and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized
convection should be relatively isolated.