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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to
mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the
central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will
develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains
through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through
the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High
Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday.

...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central
Plains, and Midwest...
On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from
southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the
southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The
eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains
dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly
locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far
southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well.
Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and
the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will
sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of
critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally
critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and
possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy
conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day
5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. 

The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the
Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to
be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas
of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on
Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could
lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are
very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if
not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent
outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast
guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and
Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. 

...Rest of CONUS...
Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on
Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum
RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are
likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain
likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day
6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be
preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation.

..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...