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Mesoscale Discussion 1590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251716Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may intensify and support isolated damaging
winds through the afternoon hours across western to central North
Carolina and southern Virginia. Watch issuance is currently not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A broad cluster of thunderstorms has developed within
the southern Appalachians and along a lee trough axis across western
VA/NV over the past couple of hours. This activity has largely
remained disorganized, likely due to weak flow observed in the KFCX,
KMRX, and KRAX VWPs. However, increasing cloud-top heights and
cooling cloud-top temperatures in a few cells hint at gradual
intensification over the past 30-60 minutes. This trend will
continue through the afternoon as warming temperatures, coupled with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, boosts MLCAPE values to near
2000-2500 J/kg with minimal inhibition. A few strong to severe
storms are possible and may exhibit periods of semi-organized
outflow. However, deep-layer flow is expected to remain meager
across the region as the synoptic mid-level wave passes well to the
north. This will limit the potential for widespread organized severe
weather and likely mitigates the need for a watch, though isolated
damaging wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35868317 36658153 37188073 37368009 37247925 36947824
            36377821 35567854 35117955 35118119 35158233 35388312
            35868317