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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the
mid-Atlantic region west to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley region.  A few damaging wind gusts locally will be the
primary severe hazard.

...Synopsis...
South of a pair of central and eastern Canada upper lows, moderate
cyclonic flow will prevail Tuesday from the north-central U.S.
eastward across the Northeast.  Farther south, weak flow aloft will
prevail.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain largely in place from
the Mid-Atlantic region westward to the central High Plains through
the period.

...Mid Mississippi Valley region eastward to the Virginia and North
Carolina Coastal area...
A nearly stationary surface front is forecast to remain in place
from Virginia to Missouri on Tuesday.  Showers and thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary at the start
of the period, from the Mid-Mississippi to Mid-Ohio Valleys, where a
stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out.

During the day, heating/destabilization along the boundary in areas
less affected by ongoing precipitation/cloud cover will yield an
expansion in convective coverage, with storms eventually
developing/spreading eastward with time to cover much of the MRGL
risk area.  

With moderate/roughly unidirectional westerly flow aloft progged
atop the front, a few stronger wind gusts appear likely --
particularly if storms can evolve locally into an eastward-moving
cluster or two.  At this time, confidence is too low to narrow down
an area of possibly greater severe potential/coverage, so will
maintain broad MRGL risk from southeastern Missouri eastward to
coastal Virginia and North Carolina.

..Goss.. 07/25/2022