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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today.

...Discussion...

Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected
to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses
across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z.
In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across
the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced
surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one
focus for potential convective development, along with warm
advection.

Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy
ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted
within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk
for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast
soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning
discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak
instability.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024