Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind
gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight.

...20Z Update...

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa...
Recent surface analysis places the primary low over southeast SD,
with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across
central NE and into western KS. Additional surface cyclogenesis is
still anticipated over central KS later this evening, at the
intersection of the aforementioned cold front and a warm front that
arcs from north-central KS eastward to MCI and even more
southeastward through southwest MO. This warm front is expected to
continue slowly progress northeastward, with warm and modest moist
conditions advecting into eastern KS and adjacent far western MO. 

Thunderstorms are still expected as the cold front interacts with a
modestly buoyant airmass across eastern KS and western MO. Some
cellular activity is possible initially, with 35 to 45 kt of
effective bulk shear supporting the potential for large hail (1 to
1.75" in diameter). Given the strong forcing along the front, any
development should trend towards a linear mode quickly. The
opportunity for severe will be limited by both the fast-moving front
and narrow corridor of buoyancy, with severe coverage expected to
remain isolated.  

A few isolated gusts from 50 to 60 mph are anticipated as well.
Isolated hail also remains possible across southern IA, where
warm-air advection should result in elevated thunderstorms amid cold
mid-level temperatures and moderate vertical shear.

In both of these areas, the overall severe coverage is still
forecast to remain isolated, precluding the need to increase severe
probabilities with this update.

..Mosier.. 10/24/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa...
A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the
central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS
Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the
central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the
mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending
southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be
located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized
by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across
the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon.

With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective
initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and
vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across
this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of
steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly
supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft
organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be
possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition
to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the
evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may
occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before
convection tends to beco*e elevated with eastward extent into MO
later this evening.

Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight
hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm
front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and
deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it
remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for
more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number
and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into
northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk
with this update.