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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight.

...20z Update...

Thunderstorm chances remain low through tonight, and no changes are
needed for the 20z update.

..Leitman.. 10/23/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold
front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with
shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level
moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the
development of sufficient instability to support charge separation
and lightning.

Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon
through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern
flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and
instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale
ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region.
Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10%
through the end of the period.