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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas
and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of
Iowa.

On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central
and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from
the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in
place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold
front, providing generally stable conditions. 

Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the
mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon
and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level
moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix
out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected.

A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but
will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability.
Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to
a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to
cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient
forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated
convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours.
Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may
support a few supercells capable of large hail.

..Jewell.. 10/23/2024