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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Saturday to D6/Monday as
a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong
surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its
wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will
return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There
is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution
of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a
strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to
middle part of next week.

Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with
consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental
airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not
forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D7.
Limited moisture may surge northward on Tuesday/D7 and Wednesday/D8
with some thunderstorms possible. However, there is no clear signal
for severe weather at this time.