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Mesoscale Discussion 2154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Areas affected...the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...

Valid 210417Z - 210545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated severe hail from quarters to golf
balls, and locally strong gusts of 45-60 mph should persist for
another couple hours, before likely weakening overnight. Additional
watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Discrete cells have largely remain separated in two
distinct convective swaths; one east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains across the Raton Mesa, and separately near the I-40
corridor in eastern NM. These areas are gradually converging and
this process should accelerate over the next couple hours. A couple
persistent supercells have spread slowly northeast in both regimes
from far southeast CO to east-central NM. The FDX VWP data appears
to be sampling the previously advertised increasing weakness in the
hodograph from 1-3 km AGL. In conjunction with gradual nocturnal
cooling within a moist low-level air mass, supercell structures
should diminish, as well as beco*e increasingly elevated in time
overnight. 00Z hr** members along with the NSSL-MPAS are rather
consistent in supporting a decreasing severe threat after 06Z.

..Grams.. 10/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37330367 37900332 38030285 37700259 37170254 36110268
            35170277 34630305 34640366 34880432 35520422 36200434
            36460434 37330367