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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of
tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern
Colorado this evening.

...01z Update...

Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is
now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance
into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the
TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will
overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts
should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to
southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to
the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern
NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern
High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit
strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered
strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will
persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually
wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely
struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the
TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings.

..Darrow.. 10/21/2024