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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central
Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon
to early evening Monday.

...Synopsis...
Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is
expected to beco*e more progressive by early Monday, tracking
northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it
does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this
system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the
central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). 
At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move
across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest
low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms possible. 

...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX
Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning,
fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the
synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to
continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest
buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and
cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough
to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for
large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode
suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited.

A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this
initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing
progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central
NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when
the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and
thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid
70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level
temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support
1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with
some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of
the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow
will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. 

Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable
of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest
the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from
central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains
regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the
overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe
probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be
needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage
increases.

..Mosier.. 10/20/2024