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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central
Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon
to early evening Monday.

...Synopsis...
A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to
be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate
east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs,
a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This
will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints
expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the
potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. 

...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma...
Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central
Plains, co*bined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in
weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show
inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated
thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen
somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This
will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any
supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the
lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two,
but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited.
Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer
cools and inhibition increases.

..Bentley.. 10/20/2024