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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible
across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this
evening.

...01z Update...

Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of
the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will
advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow
the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners.
Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern
NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a
broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from
near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of
Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which
are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves
County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial
capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are
steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with
strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to
develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where
inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large
hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two
can not be ruled out this evening.

..Darrow.. 10/20/2024