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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across
eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will beco*e less so in
the northern stream through the period, as nearly zonal flow takes
shape across the northern international border region, and synoptic
ridging deamplifies over the eastern CONUS.  A co*pact cyclone --
initially centered over central AZ -- will remain near its present
position through the period, having beco*e cut off temporarily from
the prevailing westerlies.  

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a decelerating cold to
quasistationary front from a weak low over northeastern MN to
another near LXN, then southwestward over northeastern KS,
southeastern CO and northeastern NM near LVS, merging with a slow-
moving Pacific front related more directly to the AZ cyclone.  That
front extended south southwestward over the Tularosa Valley to
between LRU-ELP, and should move little today (with just mesobeta-
scale baroclinic shifts from precip/outflow).

...Eastern NM, west TX...
Along and east of the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon into evening, and congeal with time into at
least a loosely contiguous band.  This activity should be oriented
strongly parallel to the southerly to south-southwest flow
characterizing the cyclone's peripheral eastern semicircle.  A few
supercells are possible in the transitional time between development
and quasi-linear evolution of that activity, as well as in the warm
sector farther east.  Some of the convective lift -- then underway
from diurnal heating of a weakly capped, EML-deprived air mass --
will be aided by the upslope co*ponent of southeasterly
boundary-layer flow into higher terrain across this region.  The
same flow also will contribute to substantial veering with height,
yielding favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 35-40 kt,
locally larger) for supercells in any relatively sustained/discrete
convection.  

Hodographs should reach their largest sizes for areas with surface-
based effective-inflow parcels in the 23-03Z time frame, suggesting
a window of relatively maximized local tornado opportunity for any
supercells that can access what should be a much higher-theta-e
inflow airmass than the previous day.  Surface dewpoints in the 50s
F should remain co*mon in the warm sector through the diurnal
heating cycle, and low 60s already are seen in mesonet data not far
upstream, over the Pecos Valley of west TX.  At elevations mainly
above 4000 ft, the resulting boundary-layer thermodynamic profile
(including lower LCL), and slightly cooler air aloft, should steepen
previously meager lapse rates enough to permit a corridor of 1000-
1500 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE.  A conditional significant-hail
threat may develop as well, but given the lack of greater lapse
rates typically found with such hail in this area, will refrain from
an unconditional sig/hatched line at this time.

..Edwards/Goss.. 10/19/2024