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Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Areas affected...Portions of NY and VT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 250636Z - 250800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds continues
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...A band of loosely organized thunderstorms persists
across parts of NY into VT as of 0635Z. Strong speed shear
associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada is present across this region, with around 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Strong
west-southwesterly low-level winds noted on area VWPs may still be
able to reach the surface through convective downdraft processes.
But, weak instability and increasing MLCIN with eastward extent into
NY/VT will likely limit the overall severe threat with time as
convection spreads eastward. Still, the primary severe risk in the
short term (next 1-2 hours) should remain isolated damaging winds
given the mainly linear nature of the ongoing thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42027950 43487573 44497380 44977318 44957225 44107287
            42867477 42047710 42027950