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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEST TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the
mid-Atlantic region west to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley region, and also over the central High Plains.  Damaging
winds will be the primary severe hazard, with severe hail possible
across the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low over Manitoba/Ontario Provinces will move south
towards the international border on Tuesday as an embedded shortwave
trough rotates around the low towards the upper Midwest.  A
convectively enhanced low amplitude impulse will move from the OH
Valley across the mid-Atlantic region during the day.  A surface
front should extend along the northeast coast to the Delmarva
Peninsula, then extend west to near the KS/OK border Tuesday
afternoon. A cold front associated with the northern Plains impulse
will move east across the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest.


...Mid-Atlantic west to OH/TN Valley...
Ongoing precipitation is expected Tuesday morning in the vicinity of
the surface front, aided by warm advection associated with a
weakening westerly low-level jet. Re-intensification of ongoing
storms, and new storm development are anticipated during the
afternoon as ascent with the low-amplitude impulse interacts with a
moderately unstable air mass (pockets of MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg).
Westerly effective shear of 30-40 kts will support organized storms,
with isolated cells capable of strong/severe gusts mainly during the
afternoon.  Uncertainty regarding extent and location of morning
storms may necessitate adjustments to the risk area in later
outlooks.

...Southeast Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle...
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may develop over southeast WY where
low-level easterly flow will reside beneath moderately strong
northwest mid-level winds, resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear
for organized storms.  Modest instability will be in place with
MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, and this should support a couple of
southeast-moving supercells posing a risk for severe hail and wind.

...Eastern Nebraska north to Southern Minnesota...
Although severe probabilities have not been included with this
outlook, some potential may exist for isolated strong storms along
the eastward-moving cold front Tuesday afternoon.  Uncertainty
regarding the degree of destabilization in advance of the cold front
and storm development/coverage remain too great to include severe
probabilities.

..Bunting.. 07/25/2022