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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be
possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern
Rockies and southern High Plains.  An isolated threat for severe may
locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over
the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move
east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later
tonight.  An associated cold front will push east across the Four
Corners through this afternoon.  Farther east, the southwestern
extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO
before decelerating near the Raton Mesa.

...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon...
Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will
gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early
afternoon.  The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but
an enlarged hodograph.  Visible-satellite and radar imagery show
widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern
extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. 
Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE)
across northern/eastern AZ.  As a result, a couple of shallow
transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief
tornado and/or locally strong gust.  The risk for strong/severe
gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger
storm or two before cold front passage later today.

...Southern High Plains and escarpments...
Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a
low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where
dewpoints range in the 50s deg F.  Heating through the mid-late
afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern
NM.  Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards
the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM.  Initially
isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z
window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and
into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. 
Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the
upper low, storms will mature into the evening.  The stronger storms
will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. 
Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the
northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a
tornado may develop.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 10/18/2024