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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA...LOS
ANGELES...SAN BERNARDINO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

A Critical area was added over portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, San
Bernardino, and Riverside Counties in southern California. The
latest high-resolution guidance consensus lends increased confidence
in the overlap of strong offshore winds (gusts ranging from 45 to 55
mph) and single-digit to lower-teens RH on Friday morning/afternoon,
and potentially again during the early morning hours on Saturday.
The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH are expected
over the typical wind-prone valleys/mountains (e.g., San Gabriel,
Santa Monica, and Santa Ana Mountains and foothills). Upon
coordination with the local forecast offices, fuels are supportive
of large-fire spread, warranting the upgrade to Critical. 

Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Weinman.. 10/17/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/

...Synopsis...
As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow
will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level
flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the
fire weather concern across the Plains. 

Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a
co*pact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds
of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels
across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore,
no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. 

However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated
fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley,
Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state,
and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to
the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely
strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH
gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high
pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across
southern California.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...