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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains
Saturday into Saturday night, acco*panied by at least some risk for
severe weather.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...

An upper low over the Four Corners vicinity will only shift slight
northeast through the forecast period. On the eastern periphery of
this system, moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow will
persist over the southern High Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow
will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints across the region, with
decreasing boundary-layer moisture with northward extent into the
central Plains. A weak surface trough/dryline will remain nearly
stationary through the period, resulting in low-level convergence in
a weak upslope flow regime. Cloudiness and ongoing
showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. However, modest
boundary-layer moisture beneath 7-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates will
support weak instability (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Furthermore,
vertically veering supercell wind profiles will support isolated
organized convection. The overall pattern will remain similar to
that expected in the Day 2/Friday period, and at least a low risk
for severe storms is expected to persist on Day 3/Saturday.

..Leitman.. 10/17/2024