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SPC MD 1585

SPC MD 1585

[html]MD 1585 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
       
MD 1585 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 250452Z - 250645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An additional watch and/or extension of the existing watch
may beco*e necessary tonight. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur.

DISCUSSION...The more robust convection along the front currently
extends from northeastern OH into northwest PA, which is also within
the stronger instability. Surface observations indicate a relatively
warm air mass with temperatures near 80 F. In addition, deep-layer
shear vectors have a more favorable cross-boundary orientation. This
suggests support for bowing line segments, and perhaps a brief
tornado as 0-1 SRH is between 200-250 m2/s2 per objective analysis.
Trends will be monitored over the next hour and if intensity
holds/increases, a new watch may be considered.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41997975 42437744 42717614 42727576 42477528 41887529
            41377612 41267695 41277899 41368001 41708021 41997975


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Source: SPC MD 1585 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1585.html)